Homebuilding in Greater Victoria was down 24 per cent over the
first four months of 2011 compared to the 10-year historical average, says
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
A combination of fewer multi-family
developments breaking ground and uncertainty over the fate of the harmonized
sales tax appears to be behind the sluggish start to the year.
“Everything
has been pretty slow across the Island over the first few months, but I’m still
optimistic about the summer and fall months having seen what’s on the books, has
been approved and what’s in the planning stages,” said Travis Archibald, senior
market analyst with CMHC. “But again, the biggest factor is on the multi-family
side – any one project can have a big impact on the numbers and right now we
haven’t seen much in terms of apartment and townhome starts this year.”
There
were 445 total housing starts over the first four months of the year in Greater
Victoria, a 47 per cent drop from the same period in 2010. Of those, only 249
represented multi-family starts, a big drop from the 522 multifamily starts in
2010.
In April alone, there were 124 total starts, down 42 per cent from the
213 in April 2010, and there were just 59 multi-family units a 52 per cent drop
from the 123 in April last year.
Archibald said CMHC still expects about
2,000 starts across Victoria in 2011 based on continued levels of in-migration
and the number of projects in the pipeline.
“Like any business, homebuilding
is cyclical but ultimately you will have to build to meet the long-term
demographic demand,” he said noting net in-migration to Victoria last year was
6,000. “As long as people keep moving here we will need housing.”